EHSPN: Fact or Fiction, Week 2

Pedro Gammo and Jayson Snark take a break from drinking beer all day to sit down to discuss some of the pressing issues facing the EHCC this week, and also drink beer. Lots and lots of beer.



Fact or Fiction, Week 2
Pedro Gammo, EHSPN
Jason Snark, EHSPN

1) Bridgewater is the Best Team in the League

Gammo: FICTION: Well, that's just not true. Why would you even ask me that? They beat a very young and rebuilding Golden staff who got one start, and not a good one, from Matsuzaka before he went north and they played them before the addition of Jonny Cueto. Bridgewater isn't even the best week 1 team in the league. Sure they won 9-1 this year, but their overall record in the past 4 years in week one 24-13-3. Vegas and Weymouth both trump that. Too much is being read into week one results. If you look into all the stats themselves, Las Vegas is the best team in the land, but they still finished with a score of 5-4-1 after week 1. Get back to me in 10 weeks and we'll see where we stand.

Snark: FICTION: Bridgewater sucks. Their pitching is all smoke and mirrors and their hitters are all old and overrated. The only thing they have going for them is that the team they played last week was even worse than them, making them look awesome, when they’re not. The fact is, Golden sucks; that doesn’t make every team that kicks their ass the best team in the league, it just makes Golden the worst. Period!


2) Golden is the Worst Team in the League

Snark: FICTION: Golden has a great young team. They’re rebuilding and looking good doing it. Thanks to the prospect shuttle from Canada to the Rockies, they’ve got some fantastic pieces that have already started delivering big-time results. Chris Young The Outfielder is destroying pitches and Johnny Cueto is the greatest Golden pitcher since Tim Lincecum. Once Clay Bucholz, Jon Lester, and Jason Bay start putting it together, watch out. Just because Bridgewater beat them badly in Week one, you can’t read too much into that. Bridgewater is the best team in the league; that doesn’t make Golden the worst. Golden is awesome. Period!

Gammo: FICTION: Again, week 1 hype is boggling my mind. We shouldn't be asking this question based on the first match up of the year, we should be asking this based on the numbers the teams put up thus far. If we really want to crown a "Worst Team of 2008" after week one let's forget who played who, who got lucky and who didn't, and let's look at the numbers. Golden has hit the second most amount of home runs in the league thus far. They are also in the middle of the past in RBI, SB, and team AVG. Their pitching staff, though didn't explode onto the scene this season, is young and building maturity, and the team has already matched their Save total from 2008 after just one week (1). They still aren't the worst team in the league. That honor goes to Tijunana, who ranked last or second to last in every pitching category except saves after week 1. They also finished last in 3 of the 5 offensive categories as well.


3) Winston-Salem will fall just short of the playoffs for the 3rd year in a row

Gammo: FACT: If week one stats are any indication, and they aren't (just look at the fact that Vegas, statistically, has the second best pitching staff in the league after week 1), the playoffs will consist of Vegas, Bridgewater, Rakeville, Weymouth, Quebec City, and Tokyo. Finishing 7th and 8th would be Peoria and Winston-Salem. This seems to be the trend for the Monsters. Unless they get a great choice to use their now #1 waiver priority on or make a big move before the all star break, I can't see them making that huge push needed to get back over the hump.

Snark: FICTION: This is the year Winston-Salem makes the leap from “also-rans” to “also-rans who lose in the first round of the playoffs”. Look at that team! They have ‘just a shade above mediocre’ written all over them! Sure, they have terrible players at every other position; but look at the OTHER positions! Great players! So what is Kevin Youkilis is a bad fantasy third baseman? Hanley Ramirez is at Short! So what if David Murphy is consistently in their starting lineup? So is Grady Sizemore! And on and on it goes! Zach Duke? Meh. Erik Bedard? Hooray! Pat Maholm? Boooooo! Rich Harden? Well, uh…can we say Erik Bedard again? Hooray!

The point is, Winston-Salem traditionally does just enough to almost make it. Thanks to their fantastic pickup of scorching hot phenom Edwin Jackson, look for them to finally get over the hump. Management is ready to play some meaningful ballgames in the postseason (for one week, then they’re ready to play some consolation matches. They’re just more comfortable with it).


4) The Peoria Cardinals are a legitimate playoff contender

Gammo: FACT: They need to fill a few holes to be a championship contender, but they could conceivably sneak into the playoffs with a well timed run and some breaks along the way. They play Winston-Salem in a shortened week 15 match-up and that could be the biggest game of the season as far as determining the bottom half of the playoff is concerned. If they can add one more quality arm to that rotation without giving up too much they should be able to pick up a few more wins down the stretch. I don't think they'll make it however. The teams above them are just a bit too strong to pass this season. They will contend but fall just short, but will definitely not be fighting for that top pick in the 2009 draft.

Snark: FICTION: They’re not quite a playoff contender just yet, but they don’t suck anymore. The off-season acquisition of Mark Teixeira gives them a big-time power bat in the middle of the order, which should nicely compliment a balanced outfield of 2008 draftees Kosuke Fukodome and Vernon Wells. With the continued maturation of future OF All-Stars Matt Kemp and Adam Jones, the Peoria offense is suddenly pretty intimidating.

Of course, to load up that offense, they took a big hit to their pitching. Losing Cole Hamels and Chris Young The Pitcher hurt their staff quite a bit, and while the addition of Shaun Marcum and Chad Billingsley were savvy moves, it’s clear pitching will likely be the team’s Achilles heel all year long; and we all remember what happened to Achilles—that’s right. He missed the playoffs too.



5) Quebec City has the best pitching staff in the league

Gammo: FACT: The numbers don’t lie in this case. After week 1 the Piglets were tops in strikeouts and ERA, while finishing second in Wins and WHIP. There's no reason to suspect that, barring 3 or 4 injuries, this rotation can't hold those numbers all season. Now, if only the pitching staff could help out their offense, who finished week one as the 3rd worst offense in the league, they'd be the top team to beat.

Snark: FICTION: It’s still Rakeville until somebody proves otherwise. While the Piglet staff is by far the most improved in the league, and while it’s true that off-season defections hurt Rakeville’s staff, it’s likely that the continued maturation of youngsters like Felix Hernandez and Phillip Hughes should offset those losses. Too bad Jack Reed couldn’t fetch his ‘King’s Ransom’ for Kelvim Escobar in the offseason before his arm was hit with toxic waste. You hate to see that.

Pedro Gammo and Jayson Snark write a column every week discussing issues related to the EHCC, and also their deepest, darkest fears. Gammo is afraid of orange highlighters.

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EHSPN Around the League: Shortstop

Even 2006 EHCC Rookie of the Year Hanley Ramirez couldn't help the Green Monsters into the playoffs. A repeat performance however (not to mention some actual production from the rest of the offense) just might give them that extra boost in '07.



By Jayson Snark, EHSPN.com




Eastern Division
The EHCC’s Eastern Division is absolutely loaded with talent at a position where such luxuries are scarce. Ranking these guys is almost an exercise in futility, as any one of them could lay claim to the league’s best Shortstop in any given year. However, since that’s the assignment, here goes:

6. Jhonny Peralta, ARL
Oh Jhonny…not only could his parents not spell his name right, but they apparently also failed to instill in young Jhonny a respect for consistency. Jhonny looked so promising only a year ago, but he broke the hearts of Quebec City Piglet fans everywhere but failing to deliver on that promise upon his arrival in Canada. His lack of production from the Shortstop position not only forced Piglet GM Pat Renaud to sign 2B/SS/3B and eventual batting champion Freddy Sanchez out of free agency, but to also use the number 5 pick in the minor league draft on promising young SS Troy Tulowitzki, less than one year removed from believing the revolving door at SS had finally been closed for good with Peralta’s arrival. By the time he was traded to Arlington this off-season, Piglet fans were lining up to give him a ride to the airport.

So what does Arlington have in store for the embattled Peralta? All signs point to 2005 being much too good for what we should expect for a typical Peralta season, and 2006 being a little too bad. The answer is probably somewhere in between. Peralta will probably be good (bad?) for a line of .260 BA/15 HRs/70 RBIs/75 Rs/0 SBs, a bitter pill to swallow for Peralta’s many supporters coming into 2006.

5. Bill Hall, PEO
Bill Hall came out of virtually nowhere last season and set a new standard for utility infielders, something that came in extremely handy in the versatile lineup of Peoria (where 3 different players qualify for shortstop and second base). Hall though, entering his age 28 season and coming off a career year in which he set highs in Rs, HRs, & RBIs, should be the best of the bunch. However, whereas some signs point to 2006 being a breakout season (his age, a strong finish to ’05) for the multitalented Hall, there where also some flukish qualities to the season as well (doubling his previous high for homeruns in only about 30 more ABs, identical number of Hits and Doubles as the year before); therefore, it may be too early to label him a consistent top performer yet. There are also signs that Hall simply started swinging for the fences more last season, which would explain the .021 point drop in his batting average and the career high 162 strikeouts (good for 3rd in the national league). In any event, Hall still seems far from a sure thing next season. Coupled with the fact that he is being penciled in as an OF for ’07, meaning his SS eligibility will likely be gone in ’08, it’s hard to consider Hall a top SS, especially in a loaded Eastern Division. A line of .260/30/90/80/7 would seem about right for next season, but huge discrepancies in the power categories in either direction wouldn’t surprise me.

4. Michael Young, RAK
As great as he is (and he is a talented player), Michael Young seems to be pretty overrated in some circles. Although you can count on him for a .300+ average every year, he has been declining in virtually every other major category. He’s never been one to steal more than a handful of bases, despite playing a position where most teams seek out stolen base production, and there’s no reason to expect that to change in 2007. He’s been overrated as a source of power as well, given that he’s never hit more than 24 homeruns in a season, and averages closer to about 15. While he is still a prolific run producer, last season’s 103 RBIs was a career high, and given his slot in the lineup, is not likely to be repeated. Couple that with a sharp decline in Runs scored last season (93, or 21 fewer than each of the previous 2 seasons) and the fact that, at 31, only very limited improvement can be reasonably be expected, and you’ve got yourself a solid, but unspectacular shortstop. Essentially, he’s Derek Jeter without the Stolen Bases, and with fewer Runs scored. There’s value in that, but it’s not superstar level. Expect a line of .310/15/85/100/5, great production from the position, but not elite.

3. Miguel Tejada, WEY
Some (*cough* Jack Reed *cough*) might expect to see Michael Young in this spot, but although Tejada’s stats aren’t what they once were, he still provides plenty of pop from the shortstop position, not to mention an outstanding batting average (.330 last season). Combining his consistently good average, with a penchant for driving in runs (though his days of 130-150 RBI seasons are long over) and 20+ homerun power, Tejada still stands as one of the best shortstops in the EHCC, as well as the most consistent on a day-to-day basis (he hasn’t missed a game in 6 seasons). With Tejada plugged into the lineup, Weymouth GM Yukon Cornelius can already go ahead and pencil in a .300/25/100/90/3 line from the SS position and call it a day.

2. Jimmy Rollins, BRW
Rollins is an underrated player in some circles, and given the fact that he’s surrounded by Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and, until last season, Bobby Abreu, it’s easy to forget the value provided by a guy who will consistently hit for a solid-to-good average, steal 30-40 bases every year, and score 110-120 runs, all while hitting 15-20 homers and driving in 60-80 runs. But there’s a lot to be said for that type of solid consistency, and Rollins has been doing it for so long that he tends to get left out of the discussion for best fantasy shortstop. It’s hard to find Runs and steals in abundance in this league, and to get such solid, consistent production from your shortstop is a blessing that Bridgewater is wise to keep exploiting. A solid line of .280/18/75/115/35 would just be par for the course.

1. Jose Reyes, LV
Reyes is a monster, quite possibly one of the Top 3 players in the league at any position. The fact that he stars in Las Vegas at one of the toughest positions to fill is just icing on the cake for the defending champs, and one of the sad reminder to the rest of the league of one of the most lopsided trades in EHCC history. Barring injury, Reyes is a mortal lock for 120 Runs and 60 SBs. Combine that with a sudden surge in power (19 HRs & 81RBIs in ’06) and batting average (.300), and the fact that, at 23 years old, Reyes is still far from his prime, and we could be looking at one of the best players in the EHCC for years to come. A line of .300/20/80/130/70 is not at all out of the question.


Western Division
The EHCC’s Western Division Shortstops can be summed up in one word: Speed. The majority of 6 holers in the Western Division are classic top-of-the-lineup players. Their games revolve around getting to first base, stealing second, and scoring on the next hit. Their stolen base numbers and Run totals are very high, which is just what you look for out of your middle infielders. That said, which of these speedsters is the most valuable in the division? Let’s take a look:

6. Troy Tulowitzki, QC
The wildcard in the Western Division is Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo is a highly touted prospect out of Winnipeg, and is projected to be an All-Star for years to come by many prognosticators. However, he had something of an unimpressive showing in a brief cup of coffee last year, and his home park hasn’t been quite the launching pad of years past. He could easily be the next Bobby Crosby, but he could just as easily be the next Bobby Crosby. Let’s hope for something else entirely, for the sake of GM Pat Renaud’s health. Since Nomah was traded away during the 2005 off-season, it’s been a revolving door of underwhelming shortstops for Quebec City. If Tulo can put up a line of .275/10/70/80/5, Renaud would take it. It could be a precursor of good things to come from the young shortstop. Otherwise, it could be another long year in Pigletville, and back to the drawing board for the Piglet shortstop.

5. Julio Lugo, TIJ
It’s a testament to the depth of shortstop in the Western Division that Julio Lugo is not ranked higher. Lugo is a solid player who provides contributions in all 5 categories, and could score more Rs than anyone else in the EHCC, given the lineup of which he’ll bat atop. Decent power numbers, solid average, and plenty of stolen bases make Lugo a solid, consistent option for Tijuana at the Shortstop position. He’s pretty much guaranteed a line of at least .280/15/70/120/20, but could offer even more if things work out just right.

4. Carlos Guillen, TKO
Carlos Guillen is another under-the-radar shortstop who has quietly produced in the EHCC. Although his 2005 season was lost to injury, Guillen was able to avoid the injury bug in ’06 and provide Tokyo with great numbers. In the last 3 years, Guillen has shown that he’s a legitimate hitter, providing a high batting average (.318, .320, & .320) and showing some pop as well (20 HRs & 97 RBIs in ’05, 19 HRs & 85 RBIs in ’06). Guillen even added SBs to his repertoire last season, swiping 20 bags for the Omyoujis while crossing the plate an even 100 times as well. All the factors seem to be in place for another stand out year for Guillen. The only things standing in his way are injury and age, neither of which should slow him down too much in ’07. Barring any unforeseen injuries, expect a line of .320/18/80/100/10 and also Guillen’s jersey replacing ‘Hello Kitty’ backpacks as the hottest selling item at Sake Stadium.

3. Rafael Furcal, SD
Furcal has been something of a forgotten man in the EHCC the last couple of years, given that he’s been in the barren wasteland known first as Haverhill, more recently as Bye. Wasting his prime years has meant that his solid contributions at the plate have been largely forgotten about. Furcal has averaged 14 homeruns and about 60 RBIs the last 4 seasons in Purgatory, all while putting up a consistently solid-to-high batting average and tons of runs and stolen bases. Nothing flashy here, just very solid production year in and year out. Expect a .285/14/60/110/35 line from the Jimmy Rollins of the Western Division.

2. Derek Jeter, GLD
Derek Jeter has been an overrated fantasy baseball shortstop for so long that he’s actually become a bit underrated. A mortal lock for a .300+ average, Jeter also provides modest contributions to HRs and RBIs, as well as huge totals in Rs and solid SB offerings. Hitting at the top of a stacked lineup, he’s certainly the front runner to lead all of baseball in Runs scored in ’07. He’s about as consistent as it gets, and can be counted on for a line of at least .310/15/80/120/25, and maybe more. Certainly no less though.

1. Hanley Ramirez, WS
Some might call it a bold choice to select the still relatively unproven Ramirez as the best shortstop in the Western Division. Sure, he was the Rookie of the Year, but, then again, so was Pat Listach. Listach, as you may remember, was a speedy shortstop for Milwaukee, who burst onto the scene unexpectedly in 1992, winning the Rookie of the Year award at age 24 before quickly flaming out. He never again had more than 356 ABs in a season and was completely out of the league by 1997. In fact, in looking at the rookie years of the two players, the similarities are actually a bit frightening. In 1992 at age 24, Pat Listach hit .290 with 54 SBs, 18 Caught Stealings, 124 Strikeouts, 55 Walks, and a .352 OBP. Ramirez, in his age 22 season, hit .292 with 51 SBs, 15 Caught Stealings, 128 Strikeouts, 56 Walks, and a .353 OBP. Scarily similar, no?

So then, what makes me think that Hanley Ramirez will follow up his ROY performance with an even greater output in ’07, while Listach followed up his campaign with a slow descent into obscurity? In a word: power. Ramirez showed significantly better power numbers that Listach, hitting 17 HRs and 46 Doubles while slugging .480. Listach showed very little power in his time in the majors, hitting only 1 homerun his rookie season and only 5 in his career, while never slugging over .352 (in fact, in all but 1 season Listach recorded an OBP higher than his Slugging percentage, and in that season he had only 54 ABs, all while setting a new standard for light-hitting middle infielders).

Also helping Ramirez’s case is the fact that he is only 23 years old and still has plenty of time to build upon his outstanding rookie season. He’ll get every chance to do so in Winston-Salem, where he’s become a local hero. Expect a conservative line of around .285/20/70/120/50 for Hanley, but he could certainly improve on each of those numbers. A five category stud for certain, and a potential challenger to Jose Reyes for best SS in the EHCC.




Full Rankings:

1) Jose Reyes - LV
2) Hanley Ramirez - WS
3) Derek Jeter - GLD
4) Jimmy Rollins - BRW
5) Miguel Tejada - WEY
6) Rafael Furcal - SD
7) Michael Young -RAK
8) Carlos Guillen - TKO
9) Julio Lugo - TIJ
10) Bill Hall - PEO
11) Jhonny Peralta - ARL
12) Troy Tulowitzki - QC





Jayson Snark writes a column for EHSPN.com. He once beat Boston Celtics' guard Gerald Green in a one-on-one matchup... then he woke up.

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