If The Playoffs Started Today

Ok, so there's still 3 weeks to go in the season, but who's counting, right? Ya, ya, everyone. Sure. But let's say the playoffs were to start today and we already knew our 6 teams competing for the 2017 crown. How would they match up? Are there match ups some are hoping for more than others? Does it really matter? Let's check it out.

If the Playoffs Started Today

By: Max Powers; Baseball Tri-Weekly

The 2017 season has been tight all season. It's only after 18 weeks that things are starting to come into focus. At the very least, we have 3 teams instead of 1 actively trying not to make the playoffs, though only 2 of them are 'succeeding' in their push (cough Rio cough) for a better 2018 draft pick. 

As it stands, though technically not mathematically clinched, Weymouth, Quebec City, and Tijuana are all but assured a spot in the dance. Las Vegas has made quite a run in the past few weeks, going 23-6-1 in the last 3 weeks and with a lopsided match up against San Fernando Valley in Week 19 they have to be feeling pretty confident in their playoff chances as well. Santo Domingo has been riding the 4th and 5th seed train most of the season and has given themselves a little bit of wiggle room with a 6.5 game lead over the 7th seeded Omyoujis, but since they actually face off against Tokyo in Week 20 nothing should be taken for granted there. Rio de Janeiro, try as they might, just can't jump out of that 6th seed. Maybe the rumors of them having chemical weapons that infect their visiting opponents are true. Every week they struggle to get by and every week their opponents struggle that much more. As it currently stands, those are your playoff bound teams. So how do they stack up?

Round 1

Tijuana Hispanics (1) - Bye

The Hispanics would have to be ecstatic to walk away with the top overall seed, never mind their first trip to the playoffs since 2013. The first round bye would allow them to focus on tightening their roster, giving them an more 4 adds to tinker with. As they've failed to really solidify their once dominant bullpen they might get lucky and grab a closer making a transition on a bad team at the start of September. They would need it to compete with the bullpens of either Santo Domingo or Las Vegas. 

Las Vegas Doggs (4) vs Santo Domingo All-Star Factory (5)

Easily the more interesting of the two first round match ups. The two former champions actually match up quite well with each other, though Santo Domingo holds the regular season tie-breaker with a sweep of their regular season series (2-0). Week 11 saw the All-Star Factory beat up on the Doggs by the score of 8-2. They was also the week Santo Domingo set team highs in most offensive categories, including tying (but not breaking, thanks Yahoo!) the then set EHCC weekly RBI record. They also carried ERA and WHIP despite their 5.25 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, which in all likelihood wouldn't hold much weight this time around. 

Statistically, the Doggs have seen some bad luck and some weeks of overexertion of their offense. They rank in the top 3 in the EHCC in all 4 offensive counting stats (R, HR, RBI, SB), but yet have a losing record in RBI, and have lost R and HR a third of their match ups. Santo Domingo on the other hand sits in the top 3 in just two offensive categories (RBI, SB) and is .500 or better in each of the 5 hitting categories.

Pitching is a completely different beast in this one. Las Vegas has apparently resurrected the failed Tijuana strategy of only utilizing relief pitchers. So far they've gotten positive results as the last few weeks would indicate, but really they are riding a fine line each and every match up. If Santo Domingo gets off to a good start in the early goings of their match up they could swipe 4 pitching categories (W, K, ERA, WHIP) easily. Really, this is going to come down to managerial maintenance of each team's pitching staff. Who to bench, who to play on a day-to-day basis. Some luck will come into play for both teams as well 

We're expecting the stats to pull through on this one, and we'll see Las Vegas take 3 offensive categories and their strong relief core will ultimately take on the task of producing the 3 categories they've been paid to take each week. They'll need to as Santo Domingo has the tie-breaker advantage in this one as well. 

Final Score

Las Vegas 6 (R, HR, SB, SV, ERA, WHIP)

Santo Domingo 4 (RBI, AVG, W, K)

Weymouth Shaddupu (2) - Bye

The Poo have been riding the top of the shaky Eastern Division all season, literally never being challenged at any time. Even though there's still 3 weeks to go, one of those weeks brings a match up with the Jets so Weymouth fans should be sitting back and enjoying the ride to the 2nd round already. 

Quebec City Piglets (3) vs Rio de Janeiro Cristos (6)

Could the Rio bug get through the Piglet armor in this one? We're guessing not, but we will say that if Rio actually finds a way to hold into this spot they will put up a fight. If they finish in 6th place they can't change their draft picks odds simply by winning a playoff match up, so we think they'll get back to being competitive, even if just for one week. Not that it'll matter. 

The Piglets simply own all the cards in this one, and we should get to see them play all said cards in Week 20 when Rio visits Quebec City for their final regular season match up. I'm not even going into detail about how this will pan out. All I'll say is that both Tijuana and Quebec City should enjoy their first round byes. 

Final Score

Quebec City 10 (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP)

Rio de Janeiro 0 (None)

Semi-Finals

Tijuana Hispanics (1) vs Las Vegas Doggs (4)

This match up just seems fitting. The Doggs and Hispanics were legally rivals for 3 years before the rivalry rules were changed. The Hispanics literally wrote the book on the "all-relief pitching" strategy back in 2008, though unfortunately for them the ending was a snooze, and now the Doggs have taken on the strategy it seems with some short term success. Will it matter? As 2016 was coined the Year of the Dogg, 2017 has already been coined The Year of the Tamale. Everything seems to be going the way of Tijuana. They lose and they move up the standings. They lose all their closers, and they still win Saves 4 of the last 5 weeks. Their offense is made up of just 3 bats in the top 50 and 3 active bats ranked 245 or worse, but they keep putting up numbers. Statistically, Las Vegas has the edge here - both offensively and with their pitching - but when have overall regular season statistics ever dictating how playoff match ups work? 

The line ups are a bit one sided, in the favor of the Doggs. Vegas has found a way to trade off key playoff bound pieces (Joey Votto being the key piece), and still maintain offensive dominance. Tijuana has been the model of consistency, despite putting forth a less than stellar line up. They rank 4th or 6th in every offensive category, which should give any team pause facing off against them in one given week. 

Pitching, once again, is a different story. Even though the Hispanics have lost some of their solid starters (Johnson, Norris, Kintzler), they find ways to keep winning Saves. This alone will make Vegas management think twice before pulling their pitchers early. Things might end up being different in 5 weeks, as Tijuana will probably lose another closer (Dyson) in the coming days/weeks, but let's look at this as if they match up was happening right now. With three closers, The Hispanics could/should put up 4-6 saves in the week. They're also all-but guaranteed W and K against a starter-less Doggs bullpen. Forcing Las Vegas to play their relief core all week increases their odds of mistakes and with the limited innings they put forth any small mistake spells disaster for their ERA and WHIP chances. 

The Year of the Tamale is real and I think the Hispanics will find away to continue defying the odds, and they'll utilize their tie-breaker advantage over the Doggs and make their way to their first ever Championship appearance.

Final Score

Tijuana Hispanics 5 (HR, AVG, W, K, ERA)

Las Vegas Doggs 5 (R, RBI, SB, SV, WHIP)

Weymouth Shaddupu (2) vs Quebec City Piglets (3)

Classic match up, of course it happens in the semi-final round instead of the championship. Offense versus pitching. Long standing history between both teams. Quebec City holds the playoff match up record, beating Weymouth 4 out of the 6 times they've faced off in the playoffs, including the 2011 Championship match up. Weymouth holds the more recent advantage, sweeping the Piglets in their two regular season match ups. Who will win out this time? 

It's possible, but unlikely, that Weymouth will see the return of Bryce Harper just in time for the end of this match up, but even without him the Poo hold a slight edge over a shaky Piglets line up. Even with all the additions, Quebec City has had a difficult time fielding a full healthy lineup as of late. They currently have no bats available off the bench, which should put them in a difficult spot on Monday and Thursday of any match up, and they're hoping the likes of Chris Taylor and Michaeal Conforto keep going with their break out campaigns. Statistically speaking, The Piglets have the better line up. Overall, they're just better players. Weymouth's line up is just so much more explosive in any given week. 

Simply put, Weymouth doesn't stand a chance to garner more than 2 categories against Quebec City. Wins and K should be considered out the window for the Poo. They just don't have the bodies the Piglets do. The Piglets need to simply stand pat and wait to see how Shaddupu reacts to the first couple days and act accordingly. If they aren't too aggressive with their line up changes and signing of free agents, The Piglets should be coasting through, at least on the pitching end. 

The Piglets have just made all the moves they need to make to give them enough of an edge here, and we like them to make the trip to their 2nd Championship series in a row. 

Final Score

Quebec City Piglets 6 (SB, AVG, W, K, ERA, WHIP)

Weymouth Shaddupu 3 (R, HR, SV)

Championship

Tijuana Hispanics (1) vs Quebec City Piglets (3)

We'll save this one for another time.....

but let's hear your thoughts in the comments.