The Other Side of Winning

Introduction

The 2015 baseball season is quickly approaching. Truck day in Boston is February 12^th; pitchers and catchers start reporting to camps on February 18^th. Preseason rankings and prospect write ups are already being released. I’ve already started my roster analysis trying to figure out how bring a championship back to Santo Domingo in 2015.


As I peruse my roster and assess my chances of winning in 2015 and beyond, I ask myself the question, “How do I get great players?” It sounds a little simply, but isn’t that what we’re all trying to do? No doubt, all the good ones are owned. I’m inherently perpetually on the hunt to find the next great fantasy player.

My first reaction is that stud players must be drafted in the minor league draft. Where else could they come from? The ma-draft? Free agents? For the most part, players who were picked up in the ma-draft or as free agents were available in the mi-draft first. And if the player is so good that he’s going to be viewed at the top of his position, he should’ve been picked in the mi-draft.

Isn’t that why owners are so protective of their mi picks? I’m as guilty as any owner of falling in love with my mi-picks and prospects. I view my mi-draft picks as lottery tickets. Each has a chance to be the next great player.  The higher I pick the player, the better the odds of him paying out as a stud. What’s wrong with collecting as many of these guys that you can and waiting to see what develops?

The following piece is a study of where top tier players come from in the EHCC. Starting with an analysis of the current top tier players at each position. Then, moving to a comprehensive EHCC minor league draft study.

Top Players by Position

To determine how to obtain top tier players I started by defining the current best players at each position. I took the top 5 players at each infield position, 15 for outfielders and 20 for starters. We all know how volatile relief pitching can be, so I’ll be abstaining from any RP analysis. Next to each player’s name I’ve added the method that player was originally procured. I’ll admit that this data has a potential to be imperfect as it’s difficult to conclude how a player was obtained other than our draft records. Also, the lists are naturally subjective, based on past performances and future projections.

Next, I broke the results into 3 categories; free agents, mi-draft, and ma-draft. For continuity, I’ve included players first selected in an ex-draft into the ma-draft category even though there is a possibility that these players were previously free agent pickups and then obtained in the ex-draft.

The results of this exercise are that 11 players were acquired as free agents, 21 players were acquired in the mi-draft and 28 players were acquired in the ma-draft.

 

Could this be true? Is the ma-draft better than the mi-draft to find elite level players? Yes! Err well; it has been for the current snapshot of top players. The top players at each position is a fluid list. This list could potentially look much different in a few months.

One thing that has skewed the data towards the ma-draft is international signings. There’s been a rash of high profile international signings that’ve yielded top end players in the past few years. 6 out of the 60 players that made the top players at each position list fall into this category (Abreu, Puig, Cespedes, Darvish, Ryu, Tanaka). This is something that makes a Red Sox fan that lived through the Diasuke Matsuzaka era cringe. Of those 6 players, 5 were obtained in the ma-draft, 1 as a free agent.

 
Mi-Draft Analysis

After running the analysis of top tier players it prompted me to look into the hit rates of the minor league draft. Seemingly most owners place a very high value on their mi-draft picks and players. Why is this the case if only 35% of top tier players are obtained this way?

There have been 219 players selected in the mi drafts over the past 9 years (2005-2013). I’ve classified each of them into one of the following categories.

0. Prospect (too soon to tell)
1. Little or no MLB contributions
2. MLB experience; not fantasy relevant
3. Borderline fantasy contributor
4. Solid keeper type player
5. Stud player

49 of the 219 fell into category 0 (prospect). That leaves us with 170 players left to analyze…
 

1. Little or no MLB contributions	42	25%
2. MLB experience; not fantasy relevant	43	25%
3. Borderline fantasy contributor	29	17%
4. Solid keeper type player	31	18%
5. Stud player	25	15%
	170	100%

Personally, I’m drafting players with the hope that they fall into category 4 or 5. But only 33% of players fall into the place where I would consider them useful.

I know what you’re thinking. Jeff, if this is all of the past drafts than it includes all of the scrub picks in the second and third rounds. Surely you wouldn’t expect the hit rates on players selected outside of the first round to be as great. The following chart is from the 1^st rounds only…

1. Little or no MLB contributions	9	11%
2. MLB experience; not fantasy relevant	24	29%
3. Borderline fantasy contributor	17	20%
4. Solid keeper type player	17	20%
5. Stud player	17	20%
	84	100%

So, 40% of the 84 players drafted in the 1^st rounds turned out to be useful players (category 4 or 5). 40% is definitely better that the 26% hit rate on players selected in the 2^nd or 3^rd rounds (33% total), but I expected the hit rate on first round guys to be much higher.

Honestly, I’m shocked by these results. All of that time and research, the haggling over picks, positioning for picks and the years of development and only 2 out of every 5 1^st round picks actually turn into something. I expected the number to be much higher. This has definitely started to change my opinion of the value of mi and ma players and picks in the EHCC.

Closing

So there you have it. 65% of top tier players in the EHCC were never drafted in the mi-drafts. Even if you were to keep your mi-picks, you only have a 33% chance that that player will turn into a keeper type player. The ultimate result of this piece is that the best strategy for winning would be to sell off all your mi-assets for established contributors and ma-draft picks.

But, minor league prospects, I can’t quit you! Personally, one of the main attractions to the dynasty format is the minor league aspect. I enjoy reading up on minor league players and preparing for the mi-drafts. There are few things more rewarding in dynasty baseball that one of ‘your guys’ getting the call and fulfilling all the promise that prompted you draft him. I’ll confess that I’m a bit of a prospect snob; I think that my time spent reading and researching mi players gives me a leg up on the average owner. I’m sure that more than a few of you feel the same way. The fact is that nobody really knows how these young players are going to turn out. Projecting young players in baseball is a fool’s errand. These guys are being judged on projections of body types and the development future skills. The opportunity to fail is tremendous. Even if a guy does pass all the tests in the minors and makes the show, it’s no guarantee that he’s going to be able to make the necessary adjustments once the league figures him out. I’m looking at you Will Middlebrooks.

As far as the top players’ analysis goes; it’s just a snapshot in time. Who’s to say that in the next season or seasons that more players drafted in the mi-draft step up and overtake the ma-draft guys? Seems reasonable.  As far as the mi-draft analysis goes; it’s pretty clear cut that it’s a total crapshoot. One thing’s for certain, I no longer think that the mi-draft is the definitive way to add to add top tier talent to my team. As far and the rest of the owners of the EHCC; I’ll let draw your own conclusions.