EHCC 2014 Performance ⅔

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2014 Minor League Draft Recap

The 2013 EHCC Minor League Draft was full of surprises. Would 2014 prove to be a bit more predictable? EHCC prospect analyst Chief Lawless takes a look.
The prospect explosion of the last couple of years in the EHCC have made the annual Minor League draft something of a crapshoot. With talented, sure high picks like Yasiel Puig, Michael Wacha, Mookie Betts, George Springer, Jimmy Nelson, Eddie Butler, Arismendy Alcantara, and Joey Gallo getting scooped up prior to the draft in recent years, predicting the draft has proven to be a difficult exercise where anything can happen. But since we're a bunch of crazies at EHSPN, we figured we'd give it a go anyway. Here is our 2014 EHCC mock draft alongside the actual picks and instant analysis:

R1P1 - Rakeville Rockets
Projected Pick: Kris Bryant
Actual Pick: Kris Bryant

Analysis: One for one! Bryant is a no brainer here; his power is off the charts, and he should form a dangerous combo at the corners in Rakeville with Jose Abreu for years to come.


R1P2 - Bridgewater Weasels
Projected Pick: Jonathan Gray
Actual Pick: Jonathan Gray

Analysis: Another obvious choice here. Gray's ceiling is the highest of any starting pitcher in this year's draft, and the only thing that can hold him back long-term is the thin air of Bridgewater.


R1P3 - Dublin Snake Chasers
Projected Pick: Henry Owens
Actual Pick: Kohl Stewart

Analysis: So much for a perfect mock draft. The selection of Stewart is the first real surprise of the draft. Stewart wasn't as highly rated coming into the draft as some other big arms (Owens, Urias, Norris, and Hunter were all expected to go ahead of Stewart), but the folks in Dublin know a thing or two about pitching, so we'll have to give them the benefit of the doubt.


R1P4 - Weymouth Shaddupu
Projected Pick: Corey Seager
Actual Pick: Henry Owens

Analysis: With Owens still on the board, the Poo of Shaddytown veer off course from projections and happily scoop up one of the top arms in the draft. Owens is having a dominant year in the high minors, and was a steal even this high.

R1P5 - Weymouth Shaddupu (from TIJ)
Projected Pick: Daniel Norris
Actual Pick: Corey Seager

Analysis: Seager goes a pick later than projected, but will still make his home in Pooville. It's another solid choice for the Poo, as Seager is putting up big numbers in the minors. While it's doubtful he sticks at SS, he should provide big value wherever he ends up on the diamond.


R1P6 - Quebec City Piglets
Projected Pick: Julio Urias
Actual Pick: Julio Urias

Analysis: Nice value at number six for the Piglets, as Piglets GM Pat Renaud was extremely nervous about getting his man this low. Urias is putting up impressive numbers in High A as a teenager, and will have plenty of time to develop in Winnipeg before becoming a mainstay in the Piglets rotation for years.


R1P7 - Rio de Janeiro Cristos
Projected Pick: Mark Appel
Actual Pick: Mark Appel

Analysis: There's no nice way to say it -- Appel has been abysmal this year in the minors. If he can turn it around and start delivering on his early promise, this will be great value -- after all, if this draft was held in February, Appel would've been the number one overall pick. Rio is gambling on his talent, and at this point in the draft, maybe that's a good bet. Then again, there were a lot of talented pitchers who are delivering positive results still available in the draft at this point. If Appel continues down his current path, Rio will have serious regrets about passing on them.



R1P8 - Quebec City Piglets (from TKO)
Projected Pick: Hunter Harvey
Actual Pick: Daniel Norris

Analysis: The surprise pick of Stewart so early continues to send shockwaves through the draft, as QC scoops up Norris, whom they believed would not be available this late. It's a tough choice here between Norris or Harvey. San Juan is on the record as saying that they'd have drafted whichever QC passed on. You'd like to say you can't go wrong with either, but the truth is, the law of averages says only one of these guys (if that) will end up being a star in the EHCC. QC is hoping they guessed right.



R1P9 - San Juan Guerites (from AUG)
Projected Pick: Braden Shipley
Actual Pick: Hunter Harvey

Analysis: Harvey is rocketing up prospect lists this season, and San Juan is delighted to get him here. QC's tough choice between Norris and Harvey is exacerbated here by virtue of their having owned this pick as recently as a couple of weeks ago, having traded it to San Juan in the Machado/Sanchez deal. They could have had their cake and ate it too. Canadian fans are hoping Sanchez ends up being worth the steep price.



R1P10 - San Juan Guerites
Projected Pick: Jorge Alfaro
Actual Pick: David Dahl

Analysis: Dahl is maybe the best all around OF in the draft, and great value here. His power and speed combo could make him a mainstay in the San Juan OF for years, which is something the Guerites desperately lack at the big league level.



R1P11 - Augusta Albatross (from LV)
Projected Pick: J.P. Crawford
Actual Pick: Luis Severino

Analysis: The EHCC's pitching bias shows here, as Augusta goes for the more volatile asset over a player who could have gone a long way towards bridging the end of the Jimmy Rollins era in Augusta. Severino provides a power arm, which is something Augusta is lacking in, but there are real questions as to whether or not he was the best choice here if the Albatross did want to go pitching. With Berrios and Shipley still on the board, this was an interesting choice. But with only one pick in this year's draft, the Albatross needed to get their man, and they think they did.



R1P12 - Santo Domingo All-Star Factory
Projected Pick: Jose Berrios
Actual Pick: Jose Berrios

Analysis: Great value for Santo Domingo here, as Berrios is having a breakout year in the minors and could be this year's Yordano Ventura -- an undersized power arm that goes later than he should and proceeds to shoot quickly to the show.



R2P1 - Weymouth Shaddupu
Projected Pick: Austin Meadows
Actual Pick: Braden Shipley

Analysis: The Poo get the best SP still available, and perhaps another crown jewel to share the mound with fellow MiDP alums Max Scherzer and Jose Fernandez in Weymouth.



R2P2 - Tokyo Omyoujis (from RIO)
Projected Pick: Clint Frazier
Actual Pick: Aaron Blair

Analysis: Technically, Frazier was off the board at this point, as Tokyo made their picks after the draft's conclusion, so they made the most of what was left and targeted power arms in Aaron Blair and Rob Kaminsky to add to their stable of young, protected pitching (Kyle Zimmer, Aaron Sanchez, Alex Meyer, Lance McCullers Jr., etc). At least a couple of those arms should pan out in the long run and give Tokyo some useful pieces for a future run after their rebuilding process.



R2P3 - Quebec City Piglets (from LV)
Projected Pick: Kohl Stewart
Actual Pick: Blake Swihart

Analysis: QC was hoping to target pitching here, but with most of the best arms already off the board, the allure of a power hitting catcher delivering in the high minors proved to be too much for Patrick Renaud.



R2P4 - Weymouth Shaddupu (from SD)
Projected Pick: Josh Bell
Actual Pick: Domingo German

Analysis: German is maybe the biggest surprise of the draft, as he wasn't even on most team's draft boards. He's putting up nice numbers in Low A ball, but he's old for the level and has been around for a while. Right now, he's the biggest enigma of the draft. Given Weymouth's track record in the minor league draft, we'll have to give them the benefit of the doubt, but this one was a bit of a head-scratcher



R2P5 - Tokyo Omyoujis
Projected Pick: Hunter Dozier
Actual Pick: Rob Kaminsky

Analysis: See above. Tokyo's gameplan is obviously to load up on young power pitching, and let the offense sort itself out later.



R2P6 - Dublin Snake Chasers
Projected Pick: Luis Severino
Actual Pick: Austin Meadows

Analysis: With Severino long off the board, Dublin targets offense and maybe gets a steal in Meadows. He hasn't played much in the minors due to injuries, but was highly touted and could be this year's Lucas Giolito with a bat, as the prospect that dropped further than he should have due to injury.



R2P7 - Weymouth Shaddupu (from TIJ)
Projected Pick: Raul Mondesi Jr.
Actual Pick: D.J. Peterson

Analysis: Peterson is putting up solid numbers in the minors, and has a nice pedigree to back it up. It should be interesting to see who wins the race to be Weymouth's third baseman of the future between him and Maikel Franco.



R2P8 Quebec City Piglets (from AUG)
Projected Pick: David Dahl
Actual Pick: Clint Frazier

Analysis: With Dahl long off the board, QC targets the next highest OF on their draft board in Frazier. Frazier has struggled a bit in the minors relative to his pedigree, but has come on strong lately and could end up being a huge value for QC here. He's still very young, so should have plenty of time to percolate in the minors before forcing his way into a stacked young OF in Canada.



R2P9 - San Juan Guerites
Projected Pick: Dalton Pompey
Actual Pick: J.P. Crawford

Analysis: Although OF is probably San Juan's biggest concern at the big league level, having partially addressed that need already with Dahl, San Juan eyes a potential replacement for the badly sophomore slumping Jean Segura. Crawford is potentially the best SS available in the draft, and could provide a nice 1-2 middle infield punch with Jurickson Profar someday.



R2P10 - Tokyo Omyoujis (from RAK)
Projected Pick: Blake Swihart
Actual Pick: Raul Mondesi Jr.

Analysis: This could easily end up as the steal of the draft. Scouts love Mondesi, and while the results haven't been there yet in the minors, he's got the pedigree and all of the tools to be Tokyo's Elvis Andrus 2.0.



R2P11 - Quebec City Piglets
Projected Pick: Nick Kingham
Actual Pick: Nick Kingham

Analysis: QC adds to their pitching depth with the best pitcher still available. Kingham is putting up great numbers in the high minors, and could be a factor for QC down the stretch.



R2P12 - Bridgewater Weasels
Projected Pick: Jesse Winker
Actual Pick: Josh Bell

Analysis: With Bell surprisingly still available, Bridgewater bypasses the power hitting OF bat in Winker and instead gets a guy who is thought by some scouts to be the best hitter in the minors. Easily could have been the first OF off the board, so BRW did well to get him this late.



R3P1 - Santo Domingo All-Star Factory
Projected Pick: C.J. Edwards
Actual Pick: Lucas Sims

Analysis: It's pretty slim pickings for pitching this late in the draft. There were still some interesting arm prospects available here, but any one of them (Rob Kaminsky, Aaron Blair, C.J. Edwards) were all a crapshoot for one reason or another. Sims's numbers are pretty mediocre this year in High A, but he still has solid stuff and could end up providing value for SD down the road.



R3P2 - Las Vegas Doggs
Projected Pick: Rob Kaminsky
Actual Pick: Reese McGuire

Analysis: Not a great pick for the Doggs. With Buster Posey slumping at the big league level, and with rumors that he may move to 1B full-time shortly down the road, drafting a replacement for him makes sense. However, McGuire is known more for his glove than his bat, which is Vegas' only concern. They would have been much better off staying in their slot and grabbing Alfaro, who is putting up much better numbers at a higher level, and is further along than the still raw McGuire. Instead, they deferred the pick and ended up with the weakest hitting prospect of the three players taken at the position.



R3P3 - Quebec City Piglets
Projected Pick: Jose Peraza
Actual Pick: Jorge Alfaro

Analysis: Speed is the biggest area for QC to address at the big league level, so the thought was that maybe they'd go for the speedy Peraza to someday replace long-time Piglet Ian Kinsler in the majors; however, despite taking Swihart earlier in the draft, and having Travis d'Arnaud and Devin Mesoraco putting up big numbers at the big league level, the value in taking the power-hitting Alfaro proved to be too much to pass up for Renaud. Some big decisions will likely have to be made down the road, but there's too many variables in prospects to go for need -- you have to go for best available, and that's what Renaud did here. Alfaro is projected by some scouts to be a Top 3 offensive catcher in the bigs, so this could end up being a steal.



R3P4 - Santo Domingo All-Star Factory (from TIJ)
Projected Pick: D.J. Peterson
Actual Pick: Michael A. Taylor

Analysis: After deliberating on the pick for nearly an hour, Tijuana finally just gave up and traded the pick to Santo Domingo. By the time the pick was finally made, Mondesi, Kaminsky, and Blair were all scooped up by Tokyo, so Santo Domingo picks up perhaps the speediest player in the minors in Taylor. No one trick pony, though, Taylor also packs quite a bit of power, and could end up being a future 20/30 threat at the big league level, which would qualify as a major steal for the All-Star Factory. Not a bad get for giving up one of their 36 closers.




Chief Lawless is EHSPN's chief minor league analyst. He lives in Phoenix, Arizona with his 346 cats, all of whom he herds through the desert monthly.

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