How The EHCC Will Be Won

 

On Aug 15th, Tijuana traded Ryan Zimmerman to Santo Domingo for a 1st round pick, and in Week 22 the 3B made them regret it by slugging 5 home runs off his former squad.

How The EHCC Will Be Won
By Skip Clifton, San Diego Chronicle

Back on March 31st, I made my preseason EHCC predictions. Some were good (Dublin making a huge leap from 2012 and making the playoffs) and some were horrible (Tokyo winning the West). Here's a recap:


Eastern Division
1. Weymouth
2. Las Vegas (wild card)
3. Rakeville (wild card)
4. Bridgewater
5. San Juan
6. Augusta

Western Division
1. Tokyo
2. Dublin (wild card)
3. Quebec City (wild card)
4. Tijuana
5. Santo Domingo
6. Rio de Janeiro


Yikes.

However, my Uncle Ray once said, "Those who dwell on their mistakes are doomed to drive off a cliff in their underwear" (he was a drinker). So, rather than analyze the terrible, TERRIBLE preseason picks, we will move on to this year's playoff predictions...

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Quarter-Finals: #6 Weymouth @ #3 Dublin
Back on June 1st, Dublin was living large; 7-1-1, first place in the EHCC, and a pitching staff that was unstoppable. Then came their second matchup against Tijuana, and everything went wrong in a 9-1 drubbing. The pitching staff was pedestrian, the offense was streaky, and the Snake Chasers finished the regular season 3-2-1. Weymouth, on the other hand, was practically done around the trade deadline, and even made some deals that hinted they were giving up on 2013. But they finished the season 8-1 and grabbed the final playoff spot with confidence.
Prediction: The Shaddupu are on a hot streak and playing well, and Dublin's thin-yet-stacked pitching staff is full of guys with potential innings limits. Weymouth in the upset, 6-4.

Quarter-Finals: #5 San Juan @ #4 Tijuana
What happened to the Hispanics? They were the biggest thing since loafed bread for most of the season. Their churning pitching staff strategy helped them most of the time, but not so much against teams with stud hurlers (Las Vegas, Dublin). And in Week 22, the ridiculous offense of Santo Domingo cost Tijuana a first-round bye. San Juan has been slow-and-steady, never challenging Las Vegas for the East title, but never falling out of a playoff spot. Their offense has been pedestrian, but the pitching staff has carried the Guerites all year.
Prediction: Tijuana's pitching staff is based on Wins and Strikeouts, San Juan's on ERA and WHIP so that's a relative wash. However, the Hispanics offense has the perfect balance of speed, power, and average to take at LEAST 3 categories. Tijuana takes it, 7-2.



Semi-Finals: #6 Weymouth @ #2 Las Vegas
Las Vegas was spoiled this year. Sure, they finished tied with the best record in the EHCC, but you don't need any sabermetrics to see how bad the East was in 2013. The Doggs took advantage, going 10-3-2 (89-53-8) against their division foes. Weymouth wasn't as great, going 9-5-1, but 4 of those were to San Juan/Las Vegas so they beat the teams they were supposed to. The Shaddupu's pitching staff is very top heavy (Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, Ricky Nolasco) but lacks depth to keep up with the Doggs who have 8 starters with 140+ strikeouts. The offense is even better, with Las Vegas in the top 4 in 4/5 offensive categories.
Prediction: Just too many great acquisitions at the deadline for Las Vegas, who epitomized "The Rich Get Richer" from June 15th on. The Doggs win big, 8-2.

Semi-Finals: #4 Tijuana @ #1 Santo Domingo
Who, outside of the Dominican Republic, saw the drubbing that the All-Star Factory gave the Hispanics in Week 22? 9-1 is easy to see, but Santo Domingo absolutely humiliated their opponent on offense: .312, 18 HR, 41 RBI, 44 Runs was just too much for the Hispanics to handle. The Tijuana pitching staff also came out flat, although 5 wins, 8 saves, and 73 strikeouts would usually look good against most teams. But the SD staff, like their offense, came to play in a big spot to clinch the #1 overall seed. Ian Kennedy, Cliff Lee, even Big Fat Bartolo Colon made noise, and should continue their dominance in the playoffs.
Prediction: Don't let the regular season finale fool you, this All-Star Factory offense is not THAT good... that being said, this All-Star Factory offense is pretty good. If Wil Myers and David Ortiz can continue their dominance, they'll be looking at a trip to the finals. However, if the Tijuana pitching staff can get back to their regular season ways and put up big Win/Strikeout numbers, Santo Domingo could get surprised. 5-5 tie will be the finish in this one, with Santo Domingo moving on due to their regular season matchups.



Finals: #2 Las Vegas @ #1 Santo Domingo
Chalk. After analyzing the matchups over and over, I just couldn't find any obvious upsets (really struggled with the Weymouth/Dublin game, but either team I had losing to Las Vegas). But then again, what's wrong with picking the 2 best teams in the regular season to meet in the championship? Not everybody can be a George Mason. Las Vegas looks good on paper across the board, but that Santo Domingo offense is sneaky good. Ryan Zimmerman, Will Middlebrooks, David Ortiz, and Brandon Phillips are studs, and their pitching staff (led by Yu Darvish) is built to strike people out. On the other side, Las Vegas has absolutely no holes: Buster Posey, Joey Votto, Pedro Alvarez, Hanley Ramirez Yoenis Cespedes... all MVP caliber. And with 5 closers and a plethora of winning starters, it'll be very tough to keep up. Prediction: Injuries might hurt the Doggs in this one. Carlos Gonzalez and David Wright are still not game-ready, Tim Lincecum is reverting into Tim Lincecum, and Lance Lynn has been awful lately. On the other side, Santo Domingo is hot at the right time. The All-Star Factory could easily hit the 10 win/100 strikeout plateau, and one or two solid starts will keep the ERA/WHIP down...

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Back on March 31st, I made my preseason EHCC predictions. Las Vegas over Dublin looks completely possible, and if it happens, I'll look like a genius. However, as my Uncle Ray used to say, "That's why they made erasers: So you have something to stick in your nose when its running." I'm pretty sure he meant that changing our minds is human nature, and should be fully embraced by our closed-minded, cantankerous society... or at least, that's what it sounded like.

Santo Domingo over Las Vegas, 6-3.


Skip Clifton is a columnist for the San Diego Chronicle. He once hit 5 home runs in a T-Ball game at the age of 26.