EHSPN Around the League: Outfield

Hideki Matsui's 2006 was shortened due to a wrist injury in May, but that didn't stop him from returning strong in September (.411, 3HR, 10RBI, 11R). Even that outstanding finish to the season couldn't convince Tijuana to hold onto the 32 year old outfielder, hoping to go younger and sending the Japanese product to Canada for 70 cents on the dollar. The Piglets hope that he is the final piece to their Championship puzzle, while Matsui simply can't wait to get to Quebec City and have a fresh Labatt Blue.






By Athrun Zala, Japan Times




Eastern Division

6. Lance Berkman, Brian Giles, Jonny Gomes - BRW
Bridgewater's outfield will probably grow after the 2007 EHCC draft. Lance Berkman is a big time player and should continue to put up star-level statistics to the tune of .312/47/141/96/2. Giles is entering the end of his career but should still be able to put up .260/15/79/73/5 in full time duty. Gomes should see a run of power with much less efficiency across the board; .200/19/61/49/0. Bridgewater places last in the East for ignoring their outfield and not reconizing the decline of one of the stars they had been depending on.
Most Likely to Overperform: Brian Giles
Most Likely to Underperform: Lance Berkman
The Future: None

5. Corey Patterson, Raul Ibanez, Pat Burrell, Austin Kearns, Juan Rivera, Matt Kemp - PEO
With a bit of everything, except for a top player, Peoria is the most difficult outfield to rank. Corey Patterson had a revival of sorts last season and should continue on into this season. Should Patterson keep it together he should hit a line of .271/18/61/88/53 and compete all year for the EHCC lead in steals. Raul Ibanez followed Patterson into the breakout category and posted his career year in his mid-30's. Ibanez should see a slight drop to .284/29/100/88/1. Pat Burrell continued his old tricks and should continue them into this season to the tune of .261/27/102/79/0. Austin Kearns is, as always, a breakout candidate and should continue the upward streak of his yearly statistics to a .260/26/94/82/10 conclusion. Juan Rivera and Matt Kemp will struggle to find playing time until someone above them is moved. Supposing one of the above players is moved then Rivera and Kemp will put up lines of .284/18/77/60/0 and .242/12/40/40/15, respectively.
Most Likely to Overperform: Pat Burrell
Most Likely to Underperform: Pat Burrell
The Future: Matt Kemp

4. Matt Holliday, Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, Coco Crisp, Dave Roberts, Felix Pie - ARL
Matt Holliday posted a breakout season in 2006 and hopes to improve upon it in 2007. Magglio Ordonez is on the wrong side of 30 but is was very productive in 2006 and Graderson/Crisp are both hoping to make the jump to star roles as they enter their late 20's. Holliday is truly the beast of this group as he is right in the middle of his prime and should build on his 2007 statistics. .320/37/120/120/10 looks about right. The chances of Ordonez playing a full year again this late in his career are slim. 2006 looked like just what it was, a contract year push for one last pay day. Ordonez should post something around .290/17/85/65/0 in an injury shortened season. With talk of Granderson adjusting his batting stance after his move to Arlington the Warriors are probably hoping for him to cut down on his strikeouts and raise his batting average. The leash should be loosened a bit as well, so expect Granderson to steal more and put up a line of .270/19/65/100/20; just barely missing out on a 20/20 season. Coco Crisp will get about the same amount of action as he did last year. Filling in for the injured Ordonez should be almost a full time job. Crisp has the talent to increase his numbers across the board and should post a line of .270/11/35/70/22. Dave Roberts and Felix Pie are similar players at opposite ends of their careers that could be counted on for steals, and not much more, in 2007.
Most Likely to Overperform: Curtis Granderson
Most Likely to Underperform: Magglio Ordonez
The Future: Felix Pie

3. Manny Ramirez, Bobby Abreu, Rocco Baldelli, Chone Figgins - WEY
With Manny, Abreu, Baldelli and Figgins Weymouth has a set of outfielders that touch on all the major skill sets. Manny is Manny and should start to decline within the next two seasons. An injury and old age should hit Manny this year to the tune of .311/31/96/67/0. Baldelli was absolutely stolen from the Green Monsters and should contribute for seasons to come in Weymouth. This season feels like a .310/21/66/71/14 season from Baldelli. Figgins should end up posting a .282/7/57/96/50 line while splitting time in the outfield, DH, and third base. Abreu rounds out this group with an extremely solid, if not spectacular, .283/19/111/104/28.
Most Likely to Overperform: Rocco Baldelli
Most Likely to Underperform: Manny Ramirez
The Future: None

2. Andruw Jones, Vernon Wells, Delmon Young - RAK
Rakeville's outfield is pretty stacked with two studs and a third that is projected to be a stud for years to come. Andrew Jones and Vernon Wells are right in the middle of their prime years and it shows in their statistics. Both should see their speed start to decline soon, which would lower a normal player's value, but these two can both mash as well. Jones should have numbers similar to last year's, something similar to .260/40/135/100/2. Wells is a harder player to get a read on. He has performed well for years but now has his first huge contract. Will he rest on his laurels for a year or so while content with his new found fortune? I will predict a drop from last year's numbers to a line of .290/29/100/85/12 with a rebound next season. Delmon Young is the new kid on the block. After sitting at the top of most prospect rankings for 2006 Young is looking to burst onto the scene strong for his first full year in the EHCC in 2007. A line of .305/15/33/65/7 with about 40 doubles should be a solid first year, but maybe not up to GM Reed's expectations.
Most Likely to Overperform: Andruw Jones
Most Likely to Underperform: Vernon Wells
The Future: Delmon Young

1. Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Jason Bay, Ichiro Suzuki, Gary Sheffield, Jeremy Reed, Jay Bruce - LV
With a top four of Soriano, Lee, Suzuki, and Bay, Las Vegas has the best outfield in the league heading into 2007. Soriano is coming off a huge 40/40 year and should continue at that pace for another year or two. With his move to center field in Las Vegas Soriano's stats may see a slight decline but it is unlikely. A line of .280/48/108/115/38 should position him as the best outfielder in the game again in 2007. With improved protection around him Carlos Lee should see another huge year, coming in at .300/36/120/96/15. Ichiro Suzuki is nearing the end of his career and should continue to see his already poor power numbers take a dive. His base running and run generating ability shouldn't fade as fast, allowing him to play a solid .318/5/35/115/46 season in 2007. Jason Bay rounds out this incredible top 4 and should see a monster .297/41/126/107/15 season after he beats out Aramis Ramirez for the full time DH roll this spring. Sheffield should show an improvement once he is moved into a DH role, putting him at .295/25/91/74/0 for 2007. Jeremy Reed will probably not make Las Vegas's 20 man roster, and might not even be invited to training camp after his last two injury plagued seasons.
Most Likely to Overperform: Gary Sheffield
Most Likely to Underperform: Alfonso Soriano
The Future: Jay Bruce


Western Division

6. Mike Cameron, Ryan Freel, Matt Murton, Jason Kubel, Jose Tabata, Hunter Pence - TIJ
With an outfield of Mike Cameron, Ryan Freel, Matt Murton, and Jason Kubel this outfield is really built with a view toward its future of Jose Tabata and Hunter Pence. Mike Cameron should see a sharp decline in his production in the 2007 season. Being a 34 year old center fielder in the EHCC is a tough job. Expect a let-down season of .270/17/76/77/19 play. Ryan Freel will be used in the outfield when he isn't needed as a backup to the middle infielders. With his speed his line of .276/9/26/59/34 will be a welcome adition to the speed Tijuana seems to be banking on this season. Matt Murton, drafted in the first round of the 2006 draft, eventually made his way to Tijuana. Expect him to be buried in a bottle of tequilla this season as he posts a dismal .260/9/47/53/2. Nipping at Murton's heels should be the rejuvenated Jason Kubel. A year off of major knee surgery Kubel should feel more comfortable on the grass in Tijuana and could post .275/18/67/51/2 after Murton is taken out behind the shed.
Most Likely to Overperform: Jason Kubel
Most Likely to Underperform: Matt Murton
The Future: Jose Tabata, Hunter Pence

5. Jermaine Dye, JD Drew, Scott Podsednik, Carlos Quentin, Lastings Milledge - SD
Jermaine Dye's career is winding down and last season now looks veeeery fluky and could be his career year. Expect a drop in statistics to about .289/31/94/80/5, but only because 2006 was such a huge year for Dye. JD Drew just signed a new contract, which is never good for his performance. Expect a let down to the point of a .275/16/79/64/0 performance. Podsednik steals bases but has no all-around game, getting him a projection of .273/2/39/79/34. Carlos Quentin is still too young to have a notable impact for a competing team, but he should put up .250/16/42/31/2 while filling in for any injuries to Drew and Podsednik. Arlington has a little bit of everything in their outfield but what looks to be a lot of disappointment for 2007.
Most Likely to Overperform: Carlos Quentin
Most Likely to Underperform: Jermaine Dye
The Future: Carlos Quentin, Lastings Milledge

4. Jeff Francoeur, Alex Rios, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Billy Butler - TKO
After a year away from the Omyoujis Rios makes his return as a new player. A solid 20/20 season is expected from Rios if he sees a full season of action. A line of .310/27/107/80/24 should help Tokyo offset another disappointing season from Jeff Francoeur. Francoeur should continue his feast or famine ways on his way to .250/32/101/75/0. Nick Markakis's solid 2006 places him as popular breakout candidate. Markakis might see a slight jump in speed now that he has acclimated himself to the EHCC. .299/18/70/85/10 shows Markakis as a driving force behind the RBIs of Rios and Francoeur. Adam Jones was overmatched in 2006 and should be in 2007 as well. Filling in for any injuries he should see a line of .200/4/18/25/9. The young Omyoujis outfield may not yet be ready for prime time in 2007.
Most Likely to Overperform: Alex Rios
Most Likely to Underperform: Jeff Francoeur
The Future: Adam Jones, Billy Butler

3. Carl Crawford, Grady Sizemore, Wily Mo Pena, Andre Ethier - WS
An outfield with two of the best young outfielders and two more young, highly thought of outfielders should drive help drive Winston-Salem's playoff run... in 2008. Carl Crawford and Grady Sizemore are the jewels of this bunch, they should produce well this year to respective lines of .311/21/84/103/67 and .294/31/83/150/27. Wily Mo Pena and Andre Ethier should find themselves getting better in the next two years but this season they should put up solid power numbers for young players but with little speed. Ethier should get the start over Pena with Wily Mo getting lots of time as an injury replacement or DH. Ethier's line of .286/14/63/54/4 will only be better than Pena's .292/12/51/42/0 due to time spent on the field. If Rocco Baldelli was still in the Winston-Salem outfield they probably would have just lost out to Quebec City for the best outfield in the West.
Most Likely to Overperform: Grady Sizemore
Most Likely to Underperform: Wily Mo Pena
The Future: Andre Ethier

2. Nick Swisher, Juan Pierre, Adam Dunn, Torii Hunter, Johnny Damon, Ken Griffey Jr - GLD
With an experienced outfield Golden edges out Tokyo and Winston-Salem for second place in the West. Nick Swisher is coming off a breakout campaign and should post an impressive .260/37/96/104/0 line. Juan Pierre should slow down in the coming years, but not in 2007, leaving him with .292/2/41/94/58. Adam Dunn is another feast or famine player and will take all the strikeouts he can get with his home runs. .224/40/87/82/4 looks about right for him. Torii Hunter is in a contract year so he should post on last big year before him decline. Expect him to post a line similar to .280/36/111/104/20. Johnny Damon and Ken Griffey Jr. are on their way down to .279/20/65/102/21 and .245/17/51/36/0 lines respectively, off the bench. Golden has lots of experience in the outfield but they have to choose carefully who to keep. Some of the players' ages make that a difficult decision because the wheels could fall off anytime in the next few years for the older players.
Most Likely to Overperform: Torii Hunter
Most Likely to Underperform: Johnny Damon
The Future: None

1. Carlos Beltran, Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Willy Taveras, Jeremy Hermida, Justin Upton, Cameron Maybin - QC
Quebec City's Championship push is in full effect. After acquiring Vladimir Guererro and Hideki Matsui this offseason to protect Beltran the middle of the Piglets's order looks set. Beltran is at the top of his game and should be counted on to push the Piglets to the playoffs. .280/46/129/141/17 should let Beltran lead this outfield. If Guerrero and Matsui can stay healthy they should put up spectacular lines of .334/32/119/98/12 and .306/21/88/90/1 this season before starting their declines in 2008. Taveras adds some late inning speed to the team and can step in to give any member of the outfield a rest. Taveras should post a solid .279/3/28/102/29 this season while Hermida should continue to slap singles to all fields for a disappointing .241/6/31/42/6. The top three of this outfield really push it head and shoulders above the rest of the teams in the Western Division.
Most Likely to Overperform: Jeremy Hermida
Most Likely to Underperform: Vladimir Guerrero
The Future: Jeremy Hermida, Justin Upton, Cameron Maybin




Overall Rankings:

1) Las Vegas
2) Quebec City
3) Rakeville
4) Weymouth
5) Golden
6) Winston-Salem
7) Arlington
8) Tokyo
9) Peoria
10) Santo Domingo
11) Bridgewater
12) Tijuana





Athrun Zala is a reporter for the Japan Times. A translator was hired to help with the Around the League project, until everyone realized that he could't speak English either.